Bitcoin Attempts to Break a Key Pattern

Bitcoin Attempts to Break a Key Pattern, but One Group Could Still Halt the 15% Rally

Bitcoin has gained 1.9% over the past week and has been steadily rising since December 1. The price is trading near $93,300 after a stable 24-hour session, and the chart now suggests a potential breakout that could lead to a 15% move or more.

Buyers have returned, but not the type that typically support a strong and sustainable rally.

Buyers Return as Bitcoin Approaches a Breakout

Since mid-November, Bitcoin has been moving downward, building pressure along the way. However, the trend reversed on December 1, and the price is now pushing into a potential breakout structure. A developing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart reinforces this scenario, a formation often associated with market bottoms and recovery phases.

A clear 12-hour close above the neckline would be required to activate the breakout signal.

Spot flow data further strengthens this outlook. Net exchange flows, which track whether coins are moving toward exchanges (to sell) or away from them (to hold), have shifted sharply. On November 27, exchanges saw a net inflow of 3,947 BTC, signaling selling pressure. By December 3, the figure flipped to -18,721 BTC, showing strong demand and heavy outflows.

More than 22,000 BTC moving toward long-term holding suggests that buying activity has accelerated significantly during this climb. But beneath the surface, the buyer mix exposes a hidden weakness.

A Buyer Mix That Signals Instability

Supply held by short-term holders rose from 2,622,228 BTC on November 30 to 2,663,533 BTC on December 3. These traders typically hold coins for only a few weeks, entering quickly, and exiting just as fast.

While rising short-term holder supply can look bullish at first glance, it often means that the rally is being driven by the most reactive segment of the market. If momentum stalls, they are usually the first to take profits.

Meanwhile, long-term holders, the group that generally provides the foundation for powerful breakouts remain on the sidelines. Their net position change has been negative for fourteen consecutive days, currently sitting at -168,611 BTC.

Until long-term holders begin accumulating again, any breakout remains vulnerable to a sudden reversal triggered by speculative money.

Key Price Levels That Validate or Break the Setup

Bitcoin is currently hovering just below the neckline at $93,200. A 12-hour close above this threshold would confirm the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, opening the door to the next resistance targets at $96,600, $99,800, and $104,000.

If buyers manage to push through these levels with genuine strength, the full extension of the pattern points to approximately $108,300 — the projected 15% move.

Weakness becomes evident if Bitcoin falls below $90,400, an area where buyers previously stepped in during recent dips. Losing this support could trigger a deeper move toward $84,300, and a breakdown below $80,500 would invalidate the entire bullish structure.

For now, Bitcoin is testing a breakout supported by improving spot flows, rising speculative demand, and cautious long-term holders. The chart suggests room for a 15% extension, but a decisive close above $93,200 will determine whether that move truly begins.