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As of May 30, the U.S. is on track to collect nearly $23 billion in tariff revenue for the month—triple the amount from May 2024. Year-to-date, this amounts to $68.23 billion, a 78% increase over the same period last year, according to Treasury data analyzed by the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
The administration sees this as a win, with Trump claiming that tariffs could eventually eliminate the need for federal income taxes. Despite international backlash and economic uncertainty, the White House remains confident in striking favorable trade agreements.
This revenue surge is largely driven by steep duties on imports, particularly from China, where rates have reached up to 145%. Businesses appear to be stockpiling goods in anticipation of future hikes, contributing to a spike of $6.8 billion in April alone.
Although tariffs are paid at the border by U.S. importers, studies show these costs are largely passed on to American consumers through price increases. The Budget Lab at Yale projects that if current tariffs stay in place, they could raise $2.7 trillion over the next ten years—but with a $394 billion decline in other tax revenue due to lower economic activity. The current effective average tariff rate of 17.8% is the highest since 1934.
Tariffs are also seen as regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income families. Households in the second income decile could see annual costs rise by about $1,300, while those in the top decile could lose $6,100. Consumer prices overall are expected to increase by 1.7%—an average annual hit of $2,800 per household. Clothing and footwear are particularly affected, with prices up 14–15% in the short term and remaining elevated in the long run.
The Tax Foundation warns that projected tariff revenues of $2.1 trillion by 2034 would come at the cost of a 0.8% long-term drop in GDP and 685,000 fewer full-time jobs. These revenues would also fall far short of covering the proposed $4.5 trillion cost of Trump’s expanded tax cuts.
Experts express concern about long-term damage. Some warn that ongoing disputes with major trade partners could weaken America’s global economic standing. Others argue that tariffs won’t succeed in reviving lost manufacturing jobs in a heavily changed industrial landscape.
Meanwhile, the legal framework supporting Trump’s tariffs faces scrutiny. A federal court ruled some measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act unlawful, but an appeals court has allowed them to remain in place as the case progresses—possibly to the Supreme Court.
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